Polymarket 與 Kalshi 今日體育機率

Name: Polymarket 與 Kalshi 今日體育機率 — 717 場賽事與高手持倉
Creator: hk.tips

截至 2026-11-13 12:34 UTC，未來 48 小時內有 717 場賽事在 Polymarket 或 Kalshi 上有公開價格。下表依開賽時間（UTC+8）列出各方機率、價格來源與高手持倉數。

開賽	賽事	機率（主 · 和 · 客）	來源	高手持倉
11-13 18:00	GamerLegion – Cyber Hero Dota 2	66% · — · 33%	Polymarket	104
11-13 18:00	PlayTime – HULIGANI DreamLeague	1% · — · 98%	Polymarket	128
11-13 18:00	InterActive Philippines – Red John European Pro League (Dota 2)	61% · — · 38%	Polymarket	6
11-13 18:30	Akita Northern Happinets – Diamond Dolphins Japan B League	1% · — · 99%	Polymarket	5
11-13 18:30	A Team – Victory No Limits China National Tournament	59% · — · 41%	Polymarket	0
11-13 18:30	Team Jerry – Team Bratishkin CS2	27% · — · 73%	Polymarket	6
11-13 19:00	Vasteras SK – 布洛馬波卡納足球俱樂部 Club Friendlies	35% · 50% · 14%	Polymarket	0
11-13 19:00	G2 – Team Falcons BLAST Rivals	53% · — · 46%	Polymarket	308
11-13 19:00	NK Nafta Lendava 1903 – 斯拉文貝魯波足球俱樂部 Club Friendlies	26% · 26% · 47%	Polymarket	0
11-13 19:30	TPS – 伊爾韋斯足球俱樂部 Club Friendlies	11% · 21% · 66%	Polymarket	1
11-13 19:30	哈特貝格足球俱樂部 – FAC維也納 Club Friendlies	48% · 33% · 18%	Polymarket	3
11-13 19:30	Hyper Tide Gaming – Any Questions Gaming China National Tournament	15% · — · 85%	Polymarket	0
11-13 19:30	Team Falcons – T1 OCS Asia	46% · — · 53%	Polymarket	0
11-13 19:45	ex-ENCE – Noir Verse European Pro League (CS2)	37% · — · 63%	Kalshi	0
11-13 19:45	The Chosen Few – BRUTE SQ United21	27% · — · 72%	Polymarket	36
11-13 20:00	Dynamo Dresden – Dukla Praha Club Friendlies	15% · 9% · 75%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:00	Kapfenberger SV – NK Uljanik Pula Club Friendlies	92% · 4% · 3%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:00	ex-Zero Tenacity – BakS eSports CCT Europe	34% · — · 65%	Polymarket	39
11-13 20:00	Xipto Esports – Fourdaboy Asia Pacific Predator League	27% · — · 73%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:00	Salamander – Sharper Esport Asia Pacific Predator League	62% · — · 38%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:00	Alter Ego x Kertanegara – Surprise Asia Pacific Predator League	59% · — · 41%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:00	potn9ki – oveA Esports Pro Circuit	42% · — · 57%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:00	FK Novi Pazar – FK Otrant-Olympic Club Friendlies	33% · 33% · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:00	伊斯特拉1961足球俱樂部 – Kalcer Radomlje Club Friendlies	33% · 33% · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:10	Rakuzan – Aura Farmers Mobile Legends	57% · — · 42%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:10	GenOne – Team ACES NODWIN Clutch Series	33% · — · 67%	Kalshi	0
11-13 20:20	Team korya_mc – Team leva2k CS2	26% · — · 73%	Polymarket	0
11-13 20:30	Butterfly – PRIVATE CCT Europe	47% · — · 53%	Kalshi	0
11-13 21:00	莫桑比克國家足球隊 – 埃塞俄比亞國家足球隊 Africa Cup of Nations	60% · 25% · 13%	Kalshi	7
11-13 21:00	Zambia – 蒲隆地國家足球隊 Africa Cup of Nations	58% · 26% · 16%	Kalshi	3
11-13 21:00	葛摩國家足球隊 – Congo Africa Cup of Nations	51% · 29% · 18%	Polymarket	6
11-13 21:00	PARIVISION – Yellow Submarine Dota 2	93% · — · 7%	Kalshi	0
11-13 21:00	Turma do Pagode – Rush CCT South America	75% · — · 25%	Kalshi	0
11-13 21:00	Spirit Academy – 4ikibamboni European Pro League (Dota 2)	58% · — · 42%	Kalshi	0
11-13 21:00	列特足球俱樂部 – First Vienna Club Friendlies	33% · 34% · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	UTA Arad – FC Bihor Oradea Club Friendlies	3% · 93% · 3%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:00	NK Varaždin – NK Maribor Club Friendlies	33% · 33% · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:15	Team NS – Buster Club CS2	51% · — · 48%	Kalshi	0
11-13 21:15	Crazy Raccoon – ZETA DIVISION OCS Asia	49% · — · 51%	Kalshi	0
11-13 21:30	The Soulless Team – Bushido Wildcats Mobile Legends	50% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-13 21:30	琴斯托霍瓦足球俱樂部 – KS Lechia Gdansk Club Friendlies	32% · 34% · 32%	Polymarket	0
11-13 22:00	Team Allied – potn9ki Asgard Championship	51% · — · 49%	Kalshi	1
11-13 22:00	Saint Sinners – Balkan Outlaws ESL Challenger League	49% · — · 51%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:00	6yuBoJlbl – Drama eSports ESL Challenger League	62% · — · 38%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:00	maybe – mixLVLT ESL Challenger League	62% · — · 37%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:00	Four Magic – Alliance ESL Challenger League	7% · — · 93%	Kalshi	0
11-13 22:00	裡耶卡足球俱樂部 – HNK Orijent Club Friendlies	52% · 10% · 36%	Polymarket	0
11-13 22:10	United Arab Emirates – 宏都拉斯國家足球隊 Fifa Friendly	45% · 29% · 25%	Polymarket	21
11-13 22:30	沙烏地阿拉伯國家足球隊 – 韓國國家足球隊 Fifa Friendly	19% · 27% · 53%	Polymarket	51
11-13 22:30	Froglings – PuckChamp DreamLeague	85% · — · 15%	Polymarket	0
11-13 22:30	Seventh Letter Gaming – Rojali Asia Pacific Predator League	50% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-13 22:45	卡達國家足球隊 – 澳大利亞男子國家足球隊 Fifa Friendly	23% · 27% · 49%	Polymarket	33
11-13 23:00	科威特國家足球隊 – 敘利亞國家籃球隊 Fifa Friendly	27% · 29% · 43%	Kalshi	5
11-13 23:00	伊拉克國家足球隊 – 黎巴嫩國家男子籃球隊 Fifa Friendly	72% · 20% · 8%	Kalshi	2
11-13 23:00	Revise – eSuba Exort Fiesta	54% · — · 46%	Kalshi	0
11-13 23:00	FORZE Reload – Walczaki CCT Europe	74% · — · 26%	Polymarket	0
11-13 23:00	ex-UPGRADE – Drama eSports NODWIN Clutch Series	62% · — · 38%	Kalshi	0
11-13 23:00	Omnix – HARD GRIND Mobile Legends	50% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-13 23:00	Betclic Apogee Esports – Leo Team CCT Europe	69% · — · 31%	Polymarket	0
11-13 23:00	STATE – BBL PGL (CS2)	27% · — · 73%	Kalshi	3
11-13 23:00	LUNTIKI – 33 PGL (CS2)	49% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-13 23:00	angry birds – Team Synapse Esports Pro Circuit	84% · — · 15%	Polymarket	0
11-14 00:00	維德角國家足球隊 – 賴比瑞亞國家足球隊 Africa Cup of Nations	78% · 16% · 5%	Kalshi	3
11-14 00:00	奈及利亞男籃 – 坦尚尼亞國家足球隊 Africa Cup of Nations	82% · 13% · 4%	Kalshi	4
11-14 00:00	南非國家足球隊 – 肯亞國家足球隊 Africa Cup of Nations	77% · 16% · 5%	Kalshi	1
11-14 00:00	Gabon – 萊索托國家足球隊 Africa Cup of Nations	78% · 17% · 5%	Kalshi	1
11-14 00:00	布吉納法索國家足球隊 – 茅利塔尼亞國家足球隊 Africa Cup of Nations	61% · 26% · 12%	Kalshi	1
11-14 00:00	突尼西亞國家足球隊 – Libya Africa Cup of Nations	70% · 21% · 7%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:00	Loyola Maryland – Towson Women's College Basketball	44% · — · 56%	Kalshi	1
11-14 00:00	Delaware St. – American Women's College Basketball	22% · — · 78%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:00	Purdue Fort Wayne – Valparaiso Women's College Basketball	89% · — · 11%	Kalshi	1
11-14 00:00	Team Liquid – LGD Gaming Dota 2	65% · — · 35%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:00	Galorys – RED Canids Academy CCT South America	81% · — · 19%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:00	Team cutierover – PCH3LK1N Club CS2	44% · — · 56%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:00	Team NS – WorldEdit Club CS2	50% · — · 49%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:00	Team Allied – Inner Circle European Pro League (Dota 2)	37% · — · 63%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:30	Oklahoma – Oral Roberts Women's College Basketball	99% · — · 1%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:30	奧地利維也納足球俱樂部 – SR Donaufeld Club Friendlies	42% · 14% · 43%	Polymarket	0
11-14 00:30	Honka Espoo – Bisons Loimaa Finland Korisliiga	65% · — · 35%	Kalshi	0
11-14 00:30	Helsinki Seagulls – Kipina Basket Finland Korisliiga	75% · — · 24%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	摩爾多瓦國家足球隊 – 哈薩克國家足球隊 UEFA Nations League	36% · 31% · 31%	Kalshi	68
11-14 01:00	Belmont – Troy Women's College Basketball	57% · — · 43%	Kalshi	1
11-14 01:00	Rapid Wien II – SV Donau Club Friendlies	44% · 14% · 40%	Polymarket	0
11-14 01:00	Kufstein Towers – Swans Gmunden Austria BSL	18% · — · 82%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	BC Slovan Bratislava – Nitra Blue Wings Slovakia SBL	93% · — · 7%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	Green Bay – Viterbo Men's College Basketball	99% · — · 1%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	MKS Start Lublin – GTK Gliwice PLK	54% · — · 46%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:00	Regnum4Games – Vitality Academy ESEA	41% · — · 59%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:30	Cibona – FMP ABA League	71% · — · 28%	Polymarket	1
11-14 01:30	Anadolu Efes – Virtus Bologna Euroleague Basketball	66% · — · 33%	Polymarket	0
11-14 01:30	Hamburger SV W – Mainz 05 W German Women's Bundesliga	56% · 21% · 21%	Kalshi	0
11-14 01:30	Texas St. – Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Women's College Basketball	95% · — · 5%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Younglings – SINQU ESEA	57% · — · 43%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	CU Técnica de Cajamarca – 昌卡人體育會 Liga 1	<1% · 98% · <1%	Polymarket	47
11-14 02:00	Kloetinge – Hoek Tweede Divisie	25% · 22% · 51%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Nantes W – Lens W French Women's Première Ligue	58% · 24% · 18%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Utah St. – Bethune-Cookman Women's College Basketball	55% · — · 45%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Traiskirchen Lions – Kapfenberg Bulls Austria BSL	64% · — · 36%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Eagles Graz – BBC Nord Dragonz Austria BSL	73% · — · 27%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	SKN St. Polten Basketball – Flyers Wels Austria BSL	41% · — · 59%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Zlatorog Lasko – Polzela Slovenia 1. SKL	33% · — · 67%	Kalshi	1
11-14 02:00	SD Ponferradina – CP Cacereno SAD Primera Federación	44% · 32% · 22%	Polymarket	3
11-14 02:00	KAMUI – Aurora Young Blood Exort Fiesta	48% · — · 52%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	ex-RUSTEC – Nexus CCT Europe	46% · — · 54%	Kalshi	2
11-14 02:00	Cyber Hero – Xipto Esports DreamLeague	60% · — · 39%	Polymarket	0
11-14 02:00	ex-INOX Division – BakS eSports NODWIN Clutch Series	46% · — · 54%	Kalshi	1
11-14 02:00	UMF Grindavik – UMF Sindri Men's Iceland Basketball Premier League	80% · — · 19%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Team International – CGN Esports Spike Series	50% · — · 50%	Polymarket	0
11-14 02:00	Omega – Inner Circle Academy CCT Europe	46% · — · 54%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	eternal premium – Spirit Academy Green ESEA	43% · — · 56%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Glitchtech Esports – JUMBO TEAM ESEA	29% · — · 71%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:00	Kk Nis 1996 – KK Vojvodina KLS	53% · — · 46%	Polymarket	0
11-14 02:00	old blood – No Hoodwink Esports Pro Circuit	31% · — · 68%	Polymarket	0
11-14 02:00	underw0rld – Mira Gamers Club Liga Série A	28% · — · 71%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:04	BC Lulea – Sodertalje BBK Sweden SBL	77% · — · 23%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:04	Boraas Basket – Koping Stars Sweden SBL	88% · — · 12%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:04	Uppsala Basket – KFUM Umea Sweden SBL	70% · — · 30%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:04	Nassjo Basket – Norrkoping Dolphins Sweden SBL	12% · — · 87%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:04	Jamtland Basket – Hogsbo Basket Sweden SBL	92% · — · 8%	Kalshi	0
11-14 02:45	Team Recrent – PCH3LK1N Club CS2	74% · — · 26%	Kalshi	0

機率為平台顯示價（Polymarket 賣一價、Kalshi 最近成交價），各方分別報價、不做歸一，合計可能略高於 100%。

市場熱門方命中率

近 7 天（2026-11-06 至 2026-11-13）有開賽前價格的 2369 場已完賽賽事中，開賽前機率最高的一方贏了 1592 場，命中率 67.2%。近 30 天共 9285 場，命中率 63.3%。

熱門方開賽前機率 (30d)	場次	熱門方勝出	命中率
<50%	1968	860	43.7%
50-60%	2286	1167	51.0%
60-75%	2585	1711	66.2%
75+%	2446	2138	87.4%

項目 (7d)	場次	熱門方勝出	命中率
basketball	953	757	79.4%
soccer	898	501	55.8%
esports	500	320	64.0%
football	16	14	87.5%
baseball	2	0	0.0%

統計方式：取開賽前 24 小時內最後一筆價格，機率最高的一方為熱門方；足球只統計含和局價的三向市場。

Polymarket 與 Kalshi 今日體育機率

市場熱門方命中率

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